NAB Housing Monitor October 2026

7 October 2026
Housing 

• Dwelling prices across the combined capitals fell by 1.2% mom in September, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline. Prices are now 6.4% below their March 2026 peak.
• Sydney and Melbourne have recorded the largest peak-to-trough declines, at 8.6% and 7.2%, respectively. The pace of falls in Sydney prices has sustained, down another 1.4% mom in September, while the pace has moderated in Melbourne (-0.7% mom).
• The downturn has broadened. Unit prices were 0.8% lower in September, and dwelling prices in the previously resilient mid-sized capitals each fell 1-1.5% in September. Brisbane prices are now 5.4% below their recent peak, Perth prices are 6.0% lower, and Adelaide 2.9% lower.
• Given the sharper slowdown across the mid-sized capitals, we have lowered our house price forecasts. We now expect prices across the eight capital cities to fall 8% over 2026 (prev. -6%), and a peak-to-trough decline to 11%.
• Housing sale volumes have slowed and the median days on market has risen to 41, the highest level since late 2020.
• Detached house approvals continued to trend higher in August and are 18% higher over the year. Higher-density approvals fell in August but are volatile and in trend terms have been broadly steady over the past year.
• Dwelling starts have picked up since late 2023, led by apartments, and are still running ahead of completions. The stock under construction remains elevated at around 250k, about 40% above the 2010-2019 average.
• The rental vacancy rate continues to edge higher (particularly in WA) and while advertised rents growth remains elevated, the pace of growth has moderated to a 6m-annualised rate of 5.0%, led by Sydney.

Read the full NAB Housing Monitor September report 2026. (PDF, 7MB)