The Forward View Australia December 2025: missing the approach - NAB

18 December 2025
Economy and Markets

Economic outlook and trends

  • The economy looks to be ending 2025 with private sector growth strong and the labour market healthy. 
  • Inflation is expected to track above 3% for a number of quarters with the Q4 trimmed mean likely to surprise the RBA again.
  •  We now expect rates to rise in H1 2026, in a modest recalibration of policy.

For the full detail, read the report here (PDF, 1MB).

Related Articles

Fear & Greed: Business confidence is recovering, but don't celebrate yet

Podcasts

In this episode, Sean Aylmer speaks with Taylor Nugent, Senior Economist at National Australia Bank, about the latest NAB Business Survey and why business confidence has rebounded, what capacity utilisation says about inflation pressures, and why conditions on the ground remain weaker than average.

17 July 2026 | 11 min listen

Consumer spending holds up in June, but outlook remains uncertain

Economy and Markets

Australian consumer spending rose 1.2% in June and 6.8% over the year, while spending excluding fuel was up 1.4% in the month and 7.1% year-on-year, according to the latest NAB Consumer Spend Trend.

16 July 2026 | 3 min read

Business confidence continues recovery: NAB Monthly Business Survey June 2026

Economy and Markets

Business confidence continued to recover in June as concerns about the economic impact of Middle East tensions eased and cost pressures proved less severe than initially feared, according to the latest NAB Monthly Business Survey.

14 July 2026 | 2 min read

Contact us

Media Enquiries

For all media enquiries, please contact the NAB Media Line on +61 3 7035 5015